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2004-03-04 - 2:03 p.m.

So...in eight months the Nation will face a choice, we can either give Bush and Cheney (assuming Bush keeps Cheney...which I assume is likely) for another 4 years like the last few we've had, or we can elect Kerry and Vice Presidential Candidate to be named later.

(or we can vote for Nader...yeah...right)

Back right after the last Congressional Elections, I posited 12 metrics which I believed to be measureable to judge whether or not the one party rule we've had did a decent job or not. Let's go to the tape:

First, let's look at the "It's the Economy, stupid" numbers:

1. Unemployment: 5.6% in October, 2002. Today 5.6% (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).

2. The Budget:

2.a. Budget Deficit: $106,000,000,000 for FY2002

2.b. 2004 Budget Projection: $14,000,000,000 Deficit

2.c. 2007 Budget Projection: $104,000,000,000 Surplus

Current numbers from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/pdf/hist.pdf

2.a 2002 Budget Defecit: $157,797,000,000

2.b 2004 Budget Defecit: $520,741,000,000

2.c 2007 Budget Projection: $241,272,000,000 defecit

3. National Debt: $6,268,106,685,391.14 (according to http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/)

Today: $7,078,116,256,118.33

4. Dow: 8684.65 Today 10,589.55

5. NASDAQ: 1399.75 Today 2,044.46

6. SP500: 916.07 Today 1,153.05

7. Federal Reserve Discount Rate: 1.25% Today 1.00%

8. Prime Rate: 4.75% Today 4.00%

So...how's the economy done? Well...let's see...the nation as a whole is another 800 Billion in debt, this year's budget has gone from a $14B defecit to a half-trillion dollar defecit, and 2007's projected surplus has been erased, instead replaced with a quarter of a trillion dollar defecit. All told, a distinct F for managing the checkbook. And recall, you can't blame *any* of that on the Democrats in Congress...the Republicans have been in control of both houses the entire time.

Unemployment hasn't changed. There was a much higher number a year ago, but it has returned to the start value. Some analysts believe this is due to many aging out of the unemployment system (as it is now only a 26 week plan, as opposed to the 39 weeks which was in place in 2002, due to "emergency" extensions). However, Bush *might* just get lucky and have the numbers continue to trend downward...for the moment, a C, with a chance at improvement.

One group who has done quite well is the rich. If you were fortunate enough to have money in the stock market for the last 16 months, you've enjoyed at least a 20% return on investment. Of course, some of that is due to the fact that the Fed has kept interest rates at historical lows. And there has been some honest to goodness effort expended at reigning in the excesses of the dot.bubble. I'm going to give it a B.

So...an economic GPA (assuming equal weighting of all factors, and ignoring the interactions) would be roughly a 1.67, C-/D+

(Obligatory partisan snipe here..."Hmm...C-...George should be familiar with those...)

Now, let's look at the "No, it's the Foreign Policy, you Commie Pinko" metrics:

9. Number of American Soldiers killed in Declared Wars since 11/5/2002: 0

A legitimate question here is...do you count the soldiers who died during the actual "We're at War" portion of the Iraq conflict as "declared war"...there was no Formal Declaration of War...but the military certainly acted like there was...the dead either go here or in the next category, I'm going to put them here, because it's actually to Bush's benefit that I do (see why below). So, soldiers who died in Iraq prior to the Carrier Landing 'Mission Accomplished' stunt: 139

Oddly enough, that's not a bad number. Truly, taking over an entire country in an armed attack of that sort with that few casualties...it's a credit to the strategy of the troops and their training. Would fewer have been better? Sure...but given the mission, they did it well. B+

10. Number of American Soldiers killed in "Enforcement Actions" since 11/5/2002: 0

Here I intend to count all those soldiers who have died in Iraq *since* the Carrier Landing, as well as those who have died in Afghanistan and elsewhere where American Troops are deployed in combat. I do not have a perfect number here, but the best I can find thusfar is 385 in Iraq. I can't find a number in Afghanistan, but I know it is at least 10 (since I found articles discussing those deaths). So, the number is > 395

This seems to me like an indication that "victory" was declared just a tad prematurely. D

11. U.S. Citizens killed in actions declared "Terrorist related" since 11/5/2002: 0

To the best of my knowledge, I know of none (that have gained national attention at least). I do know of a handful of *apparent* thwartings of potential activity by timely interception of communications and such. For *just* the "Securing lives" portion of the equation, leaving out all the other costs, there is an A here.

So, on the measurables I set out, we get a 2.83, B-

So, just on the measurable metrics I set out, we get an overall GPA of 2.25...which is right on the C/C+ border. Passable, I suppose, but we could do better, I think.

Now, let's consider some other things which have popped up in the past 16 months...and these are not as clearly measureable.

"Bringing the Country together". F. Whether it's the Divisive politics of the 50/50 Nation (an excellent read, btw), or the "Let's discriminate against Gays", or even the fact that he used to be a part owner of the team that just traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees, this nation is more divided than I can *ever* recall it being. Admittedly, I am only 33, but I don't even recall this much division in the Ugly times of the late 70's.

"Personal Freedom". F. The FBI can now subpeona your library records, discover that you once checked out "the Anarchist's Cookbook", and you can be detailed indefinetly wihtout formal charges in a military jail with limited to no access to counsel. The Republican Party railed against the recent Supreme Court decision which legalized sodomy, implying that they would prefer all the gays (or kinky straights) back in fear of being imprisoned.

"Do I feel like things are better than they were". C. Are they better than they were two years ago? Well, yeah...but only because they've upgraded from "Completely shitty" to only "Moderately shitty". At least I have a job now...even though it is one with no paid vacations or sick days, a barely adequate health plan, and the fear that I could be cut loose at any moment with no severance at all.

All told, nope, I'm not voting for Bush. Kerry may not be the best of the Democratic Candidates, but he was in the top few, and I think he would do at least as good of a job on the things that matter to me.

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